10 Bold Predictions for 2024

By Matthew Gagnon

As we say goodbye to 2023, it is time to look ahead to the new year, and consider what is in store for us in 2024. And so once again I present to you my yearly collection of ten bold predictions for the new Year. 

Bold Prediction 1: The economy will avoid recession and experience strong growth due to the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts. 

But there will be signs that all is not well. Unemployment will likely tick up slightly, and the public will continue to be pessimistic about the economy’s future. As a result of the mixed and conflicting impressions, neither party will really be able to capitalize on the issue in the fall. 

Bold Prediction 2: The war in Ukraine will come to an end

First, it is clear that the Ukrainian dreams of recapturing much of their lost territory have been dashed. The conflict has settled into a stalemate, a situation which definitely favors the Russian position. Congress is already paralyzed over the question of continuing military aid, and even if they do continue to support Ukraine, it is only a matter of time before the West’s patience and money run out. 

Bold Prediction 3: Benjamin Netanyahu will no longer be Prime Minister of Israel

Already his leadership stands on the edge of a knife, and he has not experienced any kind of public opinion bump in the wake of the war against Hamas in Gaza. In fact, support for him has actually dropped significantly, and already there is serious talk of replacing him. Netanyahu has proven the most resilient political magician in modern Israeli history, but even the most remarkable and impactful leaders often meet difficult ends. Netanyahu will likely be no different.  

Bold Prediction 4: Republicans will lose the U.S. House of Representatives

Right now the Republican majority is basically as thin as it can be before it becomes a minority. Announced retirements have been brutal for both parties thus far, but I’m of the opinion that the Republicans are going to be hurt by it more. Add to that the general sense of foolish, dysfunctional leadership and a court ordered redistricting in New York that could cost the party as many as six seats, and holding the body will be very difficult. 

Bold Prediction 5: Republicans will recapture the U.S. Senate

The Senate is a different animal, and the peculiarities of which races are up, who the candidates are, and the general sense of momentum is entirely different. The Democratic caucus has twenty-three seats to defend, while the Republicans have only eleven. The states where we may see a party switch are almost all in the hands of Democrats, and I think the GOP picks up at least a couple. 

Bold Prediction 6: In Maine, the Democrats will retain control of the state Senate, but will lose the House

State legislative races are notoriously difficult to predict, but charting the way in which the wind has been blowing of late, the Republicans have a real chance to pick up the House of Representatives. They have less of a chance in the Senate. My money is on the Republicans reclaiming the House for the first time since 2010.

Bold Prediction 7: There will be no 2020 presidential rematch. 

Contrary to expectations and all current polling, at least one (if not both) of the expected nominees — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — will not represent their party next fall. 

Biden’s age and apparent cognitive decline are already causing a panic inside Democratic circles. If things get much worse in the next six months, he could decide to not go on, be pushed out by his own party, or he could experience some kind of health crisis that makes it impossible for him to go on. 

Trump, too, is old, just less obviously so. But his larger issues are legal. So far, the prosecutions have not hurt but have actually helped, and that may certainly continue to be the case. But things could change when the trials actually begin and possible convictions are handed down. There are already signs that while he is invincible in national polls, he is vulnerable in Iowa and New Hampshire. 

Regardless, both Biden and Trump have a lot of things that may take it out of their hands, and force their party to turn to someone else. They may both make it through, but I’m betting at least one of them doesn’t. 

Bold Prediction 8: The Republican nominee, whoever it is, will win the White House

Again, it might be Trump. It might be someone else. But if Biden is the nominee, I can’t see the country voting for him again. If it is another Democrat that would certainly strengthen their chances, but I think the wind will be at the GOP’s back either way. 

Bold Prediction 9: Whoever wins, the result will be definitive

And definitive enough that the turmoil of 2020 will not be repeated. Yes, I am hoping for this just as much as predicting it. 

Bold Prediction 10: The San Francisco 49ers will win the Super Bowl

Yes, they just got stomped by the Ravens on Christmas, but that kind of thing happens to virtually every team that wins the Super Bowl. They’re the best team in the NFL, and it isn’t particularly close. This will be their year.

Here’s to a wonderful 2024 for you and your family.

Gagnon of Yarmouth is the chief executive officer of the Maine Policy Institute, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. A Hampden native, he previously served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C.